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March U of I Flash Index increases for the second month in a row

March U of I Flash Index increases for the second month in a row

The U of I Flash Index for March rose marginally to 102.8 from its 102.6 reading in February. This marks the second month in a row with a slight increase and continues a year-long, modest growth trend. “The United States and Illinois appear to be in the ‘soft landing’ pattern, the goal after the strong post-recession expansion. With the rise of inflation relaxing, attention has turned to if and when the Federal Reserve will loosen monetary restraints.” The unemployment rate has increased slightly both nationally and in Illinois as compared to the previous month and the same time last year. This rise was expected due to the Federal Reserve's efforts to tackle inflation concerns. Currently, the unemployment rate in Illinois is around one percentage point higher than the national average. In Illinois, individual income tax receipts were up in real terms by 7% compared to the same month last year while sales tax and corporate tax receipts were down. The Flash Index is a weighted average of Illinois growth rates in corporate earnings, consumer spending and personal income as estimated from receipts for corporate income, individual income, and retail sales taxes. These revenues are adjusted for inflation before growth rates are calculated. The growth rate for each component is calculated for the 12 months using data through March 31, 2024.

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“The United States and Illinois appear to be in the ‘soft landing’ pattern, the goal after the strong post-recession expansion. With the rise of inflation relaxing, attention has turned to if and when the Federal Reserve will loosen monetary restraints.”

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