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January U of I Flash Index fell slightly after increasing last month.

January U of I Flash Index fell slightly after increasing last month.

The U of I Flash Index for January 2024 fell to 102.5 from its 102.8 reading in December. This is indicative of a slowing, but still strong economy—the desired soft landing.   An index reading above 100 denotes growth.   “The U. S. registered a surprisingly strong four-quarter GDP growth rate of 3.3%. Most observers expect a slower rate for 2024.”   In Illinois, income, corporate, and sales tax receipts for the months were down slightly in real terms from the same month last year. The Illinois unemployment rate ticked up to 4.8% compared to 4.6% a year ago.   The Flash Index is a weighted average of Illinois growth rates in corporate earnings, consumer spending, and personal income as estimated from receipts for corporate income, individual income, and retail sales taxes. These revenues are adjusted for inflation before growth rates are calculated. The growth rate for each component is calculated for the 12-month period using data through January 31, 2024.
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“The U. S. registered a surprisingly strong four-quarter GDP growth rate of 3.3%. Most observers expect a slower rate for 2024.”

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