Data Indicate COVID-19 Impact on State Revenue Not as Severe as Feared

January 26, 2021

Data Indicate COVID-19 Impact on State Revenue Not as Severe as Feared

Authors

A report from the IGPA Task Force on the Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic has found that Illinois’ state tax revenues fared much better through the  pandemic than originally projected. The report from the Economic and Fiscal Health Impact Group analyzed state data on tax receipts through November 2020. It found that the net loss to the state's General Funds from major revenue sources during the pandemic was $868 million. That’s less than 2% of total receipts for the General Funds, the state’s main accounts for general spending on things like education, healthcare, operations and more. Several early projections, including an earlier report from the task force, anticipated much larger revenue losses. Most forecasters were predicting a prolonged recession that would cause revenue losses of up to 20%. The loss across all state funds was $1.44 billion, which is still less of a loss than even conservative estimates projected in the spring of 2020.


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Research Area: Fiscal Health of Illinois

Policy Initiative: none

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