The Illinois Flash Index for March increased slightly to 102.4 from its February reading of 102.2.
“This increase comes amid economic uncertainty bordering on turmoil,” said Fred Giertz, Professor Emeritus, Institute of Government and Public Affairs, University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign. “On the eve of the imposition of new tariffs, the optimism generated by reduced regulation seems to be offset by concerns about the impact of the new duties. Inflation remains above the 2 percent target, and predictions for GDP in the first quarter of 2025 suggest little growth.”
In Illinois, inflation-adjusted individual income tax receipts increased by more than 10 percent compared to the same month last year, while corporate receipts declined slightly after a period of underperformance. Sales tax receipts fell by 2.7 percent. The Illinois unemployment rate decreased by a tenth of a percentage point to 4.8 percent, while the national rate rose slightly to 4.1 percent. Similar to the Flash Index, the Illinois unemployment rate has remained stable over the past year.
The Flash Index is the weighted average of Illinois growth rates in corporate earnings, consumer spending and personal income as estimated from receipts for corporate income, individual income, and retail sales taxes. These revenues are adjusted for inflation before growth rates are calculated. The growth rate for each component is calculated for the 12 months using data through March 31, 2025.
“Both the U.S. and Illinois economies remain remarkably stable despite uncertainty about the new administration's economic policy course. An index reading above 100 indicates growth,” said Fred Giertz, Professor Emeritus, Institute of Government and Public Affairs, University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign.
