The Illinois Flash Index for September remained unchanged from last month’s reading at 102. The index for the past two months is at its lowest point since the short and sharp recession caused by COVID in 2020, but it continues to show modest growth
Any reading above 100 denotes growth.
“This is consistent with the national data that led the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates last month. This marked the long-awaited turn from the primary concern of inflation to that of a slowing economy. This is consistent with the Fed’s desired outcome of a soft landing, but no recession,” said Fred Giertz, Professor Emeritus, Institute of Government and Public Affairs, University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign.
Illinois’ unemployment rate rose to 5.3 percent from 5.2 percent the previous month while the national rate declined to 4.2 percent from 4.3 percent. The Illinois rate is now among the highest in the nation. For the month, individual income tax receipts in the state were up over ten percent in real terms compared to the same month last year while sales tax and corporate tax receipts were down.
The Flash Index is a weighted average of Illinois growth rates in corporate earnings, consumer spending and personal income as estimated from receipts for corporate income, individual income, and retail sales taxes. These revenues are adjusted for inflation before growth rates are calculated. The growth rate for each component is calculated for the 12-month period using data through September 30, 2024.
“This is consistent with the national data that led the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates last month. This marked the long-awaited turn from the primary concern of inflation to that of a slowing economy. This is consistent with the Fed’s desired outcome of a soft landing, but no recession," said Fred Giertz, Professor Emeritus, Institute of Government and Public Affairs, University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign.
