Chicago’s public transit agencies—CTA, Metra, and Pace—are approaching a fiscal cliff, with federal pandemic relief funds expected to be depleted by 2026, leading to a projected $730 million budget deficit. This financial strain threatens service reliability, potentially deterring riders and exacerbating revenue declines. To address this crisis, stakeholders are considering solutions such as increased state funding, fare adjustments, and potential consolidation of transit agencies to ensure sustainable operations.
P.S. Sriraj is the Director of the Urban Transportation Center at UIC and a Research Professor specializing in public transportation systems, equity, and program evaluation. He has led over 40 funded projects totaling more than $35 million and currently serves as Vice Chairman of the Illinois International Port District Board as well as a Commissioner on the High Speed Rail Commission for Illinois. He shares his insights on alternative strategies Chicago public transit could implement.
What are the primary factors contributing to the Regional Transportation Authority’s projected $730 million budget shortfall by 2026? How do these factors reflect broader trends in urban transit systems?
Sriraj: Everything that you are reading about in the news currently is pertaining to the operating needs of the Chicago system, including the years of neglect. As all these transitions are happening in public transportation governance and funding throughout history, public transportation users as well as their profiles have also changed. As of the mid-2010s, it was 70% choice users. In this context, it is important to keep in mind that the quality of the product always drives how users choose.
In Chicago currently, we have a very anemic ridership base, and trains have become the haven for somewhat of a nebulous environment. Unsavory incidents are becoming the norm, which affects and tends to change the perception of safety on the part of the users. So people are increasingly staying away from the train.
From 2012 to 2023, there was a decline in transit ridership each year. Many say the pandemic led to this situation, but the erosion of the public transportation base started much earlier. The pandemic just helped to rip the band-aid off and expose the many issues with how public transportation is operated and maintained. On a related note, it is important to acknowledge that for over 24 years, the CTA fare has not increased by much while the expenditure keeps going up. All of this combined has led to a significant funding crisis where the ridership base is not back yet.
A massive increase in Uber and Lyft usage has stolen public transit ridership. Can you discuss your thoughts on combating this with congestion pricing similar to what was done in New York City?
Sriraj: Many developing countries have congestion pricing or dynamic tolls. Congestion pricing is one of the many solutions in the back pocket of a transportation planner. Privileged people have the ability to pay more to get a comfortable ride. Choice users go where the product is better, and many prefer a door-to-door service. This causes a big disparity in transit, especially in public transit where it has the burden of making sure they serve the disadvantaged. Uber and Lyft don’t have these obligations, so how do you compete with that? Congestion pricing in Chicago could potentially work, if it is carefully planned. The revenue generated from that could be used to improve the transit system.
Do you have any alternative strategies the CTA could use to restore ridership or improve financial stability other than congestion pricing?
Sriraj: Public transportation is such an important element in an urban area. It’s all over the world, and public transportation systems have done wonders in keeping their ridership. Unfortunately, in the United States, there are so many restrictions on what a transit agency can or cannot do that hampers their ability to be innovative. You cannot expect public transportation to be one size fits all. You have to be very flexible and adaptive in how you cater to the varying needs of your target audience.
Public transit agencies are still fighting a battle against Uber and Lyft, so maybe they should consider folding them under their tent as a mobility manager. Use them where you cannot reach and give them a percent of the revenue. They should try to figure out how to integrate ride share services into public transit strategy for the greater good.
