Joshua Drucker, an associate professor of urban planning and policy at UIC, focuses his research on the processes of regional economic development and transformation, seeking to understand phenomena of growth, decline, and adjustment to design policies to achieve and sustain positive economic outcomes. He comments on a Civic Federation report regarding the current Illinois economic landscape and fiscal structure .
How do Illinois’ elevated unemployment rates compared to peer states and national averages reflect broader trends in urban and regional economic development?
Drucker: Illinois’ higher unemployment rates can be linked to broader economic and demographic trends. One key factor is the state’s slower population growth compared to neighboring states and the national average, which directly affects employment levels. Without population growth, there’s less employment growth — both in total job numbers and in job turnover. This stagnation means fewer opportunities for people to switch jobs or seek better employment, leading to slower adjustment processes in the labor market.
Rapidly growing regions tend to have more dynamic job markets, while stable or declining areas, like many non-metro regions in Illinois, experience higher unemployment rates simply due to fewer job openings and thus a lengthier adjustment to changes in economic conditions. These linkages highlight the close relationship between population trends and economic vitality in urban and regional planning.
What factors are contributing to Illinois’ lag in reducing unemployment rates?
Drucker: Several fundamental issues contribute to Illinois’ struggle with unemployment. The state relies heavily on international migration for population growth since domestic migration results in a net loss. However, international migration has slowed in recent years due to policy changes, COVID-19 disruptions, and other barriers. This has hindered Illinois’ population growth, putting a damper on job creation.
Additionally, Illinois faces long-standing economic burdens like underfunded pensions, outdated public infrastructure, regressive taxation systems, and inequitable school funding. These factors create financial instability, further limiting economic growth and job opportunities.
It’s also important to note that unemployment rates don’t tell the whole story. Many of the states that recovered after the pandemic and now have lower unemployment rates have done so with lots of part time employment and low skill employment — what we might call under-employment, or people not using their most valuable skills or working to their full capacity. Illinois may be experiencing a slower but more secure long-term recovery.
Given Illinois’ slow post-pandemic employment growth, with job levels barely above pre-COVID figures, how do you see this trend impacting urban planning efforts, especially in cities experiencing population decline due to domestic out-migration?
Drucker: Urban planning becomes even more critical in the face of slow employment growth and population decline. While shrinking tax bases make large-scale infrastructure investments challenging, planning itself is relatively affordable and can have a significant positive impact. Cities experiencing population loss often focus on “right-sizing” — strategically consolidating resources and investments to match a smaller population, rather than overextending services meant for a larger community.
Another approach is to attract new residents, whether by promoting remote work-friendly environments — a trend seen during the pandemic — or preparing for future climate migration. The Midwest, including cities like Chicago, Detroit, and Milwaukee, could become destinations for those fleeing climate disasters in the South and West. Urban planners may also look to capitalize on Illinois’ progressive social policies to attract those seeking more inclusive environments. Ultimately, proactive planning can help stabilize shrinking cities and position them for future growth, despite current economic challenges.
With population stagnation and out-migration to states like Indiana and Texas, how should urban planners balance attracting new businesses while supporting existing labor markets?
Drucker: Attracting new businesses supports labor markets by creating job opportunities, but it’s also key to grow local businesses. Economic development requires a balance of welcoming outside investment while helping local entrepreneurs thrive. I don’t see this as being either/or — both types of activities will support labor markets and help the unemployment issues.
Planners need to understand their locality and what it is good at, what its niche is, and what its advantages are. Strong schools and infrastructure will always be attractive to residents. Successful business attraction focuses on a region’s strengths, like Illinois’ transportation hubs or agricultural industries, ensuring new businesses can sustain themselves without ongoing incentives.
How can urban planning leverage international migration to boost employment and growth in Illinois?
Drucker: Immigration fuels economic growth, as immigrants often contribute more in taxes than they use in services. As a gateway city, Chicago benefits from integrating new arrivals with language support, business assistance, and job training. High-skilled immigrants in tech and unskilled workers filling critical roles both strengthen the economy. Encouraging secondary migration within Illinois, meaning from Chicago to smaller cities, could also spread economic benefits, supporting population growth and reducing the state’s reliance on domestic migration.