The Illinois Flash Index for October increased slightly to 102.2 from its reading last month of 102. With GDP growth at 2.8 percent for the third quarter, the goal of a soft landing from the strong post-COVID economies remains relatively strong.
“The current situation seems better than the proverbial soft-landing with inflation returning to acceptable levels while not only avoiding a recession but continuing the expansion at a more moderate pace,” said Fred Giertz, Professor Emeritus, Institute of Government and Public Affairs, University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign.
Illinois’ unemployment rate remained steady at 5.3 percent, but still well above the national rate of 4.1 percent. The state unemployment rate, still low by historical standards, indicates a slower recovery for Illinois than most other states. For the month, individual income tax and sales tax receipts in the state were down slightly in real terms compared to the same month last year while corporate tax receipts experienced a larger percentage decline for the normally slow month of October.
The Flash Index is the weighted average of Illinois growth rates in corporate earnings, consumer spending and personal income as estimated from receipts for corporate income, individual income, and retail sales taxes. These revenues are adjusted for inflation before growth rates are calculated. The growth rate for each component is calculated for the 12-month period using data through October 31. 2024.
"The current situation seems better than the proverbial soft-landing with inflation returning to acceptable levels while not only avoiding a recession but continuing the expansion at a more moderate pace," said Fred Giertz, Professor Emeritus, Institute of Government and Public Affairs, University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign.
