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May University of Illinois System Flash Index fell slightly

May University of Illinois System Flash Index fell slightly

The University of Illinois System Flash Index for May fell slightly to 102.6 from its 103 reading in April, due to weak state revenue growth.

“The U. S. and Illinois economies remain in what most observers believe is the long-desired soft landing characterized by slower growth and moderating inflation while avoiding a recession,” said Fred Giertz, Professor Emeritus, Institute of Government and Public Affairs, University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign. “Aside from the equity markets, this has provided little solace with high prices and interest rates impacting the housing market. Consumers feel uneasy with the U. S. political situation and international turmoil impacting the economic outlook.”

Individual income tax receipts dropped sharply in inflation-adjusted terms compared to the same month last year after a strong performance last month. Sale tax receipts were down slightly from May last year while corporate tax receipts increased slightly. The state unemployment rate remained at 4.8% compared to 4.2% a year ago. Illinois’ unemployment rate is 0.9% above the national rate.

The Flash Index is a weighted average of Illinois growth rates in corporate earnings, consumer spending and personal income as estimated from receipts for corporate income, individual income, and retail sales taxes. These revenues are adjusted for inflation before growth rates are calculated. The growth rate for each component is calculated for the twelve months using data through May 31, 2024.

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“The U. S. and Illinois economies remain in what most observers believe is the long-desired soft landing characterized by slower growth and moderating inflation while avoiding a recession,” said Fred Giertz, Professor Emeritus, Institute of Government and Public Affairs, University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign. “Aside from the equity markets, this has provided little solace with high prices and interest rates impacting the housing market. Consumers feel uneasy with the U. S. political situation and international turmoil impacting the economic outlook.”

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