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June University of Illinois System Flash Index fell slightly

June University of Illinois System Flash Index fell slightly

The University of Illinois System Flash Index for June fell slightly to 102.5 from its 102.6 reading in May. This marks a long period of relative stability with the Index remaining in the range of 102.5 to 103.2 over the last 12 months.

“The Index ended the period at the lower end of this range, which reflects a slight slowing of both the Illinois and U.S. economies,” said Fred Giertz, Professor Emeritus, Institute of Government and Public Affairs, University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign.

The Illinois unemployment rate was 4.9 percent in June compared to 4.2 percent a year ago. The national unemployment rate also rose from 3.7 percent to 4.0 percent over the same period with the divide between the Illinois and national rates widening.

Illinois individual income tax receipts were up in inflation-adjusted terms compared to the same month last year while sales and corporate tax revenues were down from the June of last year. For the entire fiscal year 2024, individual income tax receipts were up in real terms from the preceding fiscal year, while both corporate and sales tax receipts were down. Illinois tax revenues appear to be returning to a more normal pattern with the waning of the turbulence of the Covid period.

The Flash Index is weighted average of Illinois growth rates in corporate earnings, consumer spending and personal income as estimated from receipts for corporate income, individual income and retail sales taxes. These revenues are adjusted for inflation before growth rates are calculated. The growth rate for each component is calculated for the 12-month period using data through June 30, 2024.

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“The U. S. and Illinois economies remain in what most observers believe is the long-desired soft landing characterized by slower growth and moderating inflation while avoiding a recession,” said Fred Giertz, Professor Emeritus, Institute of Government and Public Affairs, University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign. “Aside from the equity markets, this has provided little solace with high prices and interest rates impacting the housing market. Consumers feel uneasy with the U. S. political situation and international turmoil impacting the economic outlook.”

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