The Illinois Flash Index fell in June to 101.9 from its 102 level in May.
An index reading above 100 indicates growth.
“The end of June marks the conclusion of the state’s fiscal year and the first half of 2025,” said Fred Giertz, Professor Emeritus, Institute of Government and Public Affairs, University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign. “Despite recent political and economic turmoil, the Illinois economy has remained surprisingly stable.”
The Flash Index has stayed within a narrow range, declining slightly. The state unemployment rate has held steady at 4.8 percent for the past three months, down from 5.1 percent a year ago. Illinois has also reduced the gap between the national and state unemployment rates. A year ago, Illinois’ rate was 1.1 percentage points higher than the U.S. rate. Now, the difference has decreased to six-tenths of a percentage point.
For the month, state tax receipts for income and sales taxes increased compared to the same month last year, after adjusting for inflation, while corporate receipts declined. For the fiscal year, real individual income tax receipts grew by 7 percent, whereas sales tax receipts dropped about 1.5 percent. Corporate receipts fell approximately 12 percent following a particularly strong previous year.
The Flash Index is the weighted average of Illinois growth rates in corporate earnings, consumer spending, and personal income as estimated from receipts for corporate income, individual income, and retail sales taxes. These revenues are adjusted for inflation before growth rates are calculated. The growth rate for each component is calculated for the 12 months using data through June 30, 2025.
“The end of June marks the conclusion of the state’s fiscal year and the first half of 2025,” said Fred Giertz, Professor Emeritus, Institute of Government and Public Affairs, University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign. “Despite recent political and economic turmoil, the Illinois economy has remained surprisingly stable.”
