Jonathan Coppess, IGPA affiliate and Associate Professor; Director of the Gardner Agriculture Policy Program, has extensive experience in federal policymaking that his research, extension, and teaching in agricultural policy and law. His work connects the history of federal agricultural policy development to current policy development, specifically applied to risk management and natural resource conservation.
What will happen to the Farm Bill now that Trump has been reelected?
In the short run, there is little likelihood for reauthorization and a stronger chance that the current authorizations will be extended for another year. Given what has been increasingly common in the last 10-20 years, I think there is a high likelihood that the next Congress will undertake a budget reconciliation process and that it could include all or parts of the Farm Bill.
A reconciliation process would be most likely an effort to cut spending and reduce or eliminate programs. For the Farm Bill, recent efforts would point very clearly to an effort to cut or significantly change the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), which provides food assistance to low-income households. I would also expect a reconciliation process to seek to cut Inflation Reduction Act funds for conservation (in addition to all parts of the IRA). The Trump administration may seek further cuts in the baseline funding for conservation. Whether it would include cuts to the farm payment programs and crop insurance is an open question, but not out of the realm of the possible.
What would be the impact on agriculture?
The above actions could have substantial impacts on agriculture, as could any trade conflicts that result from implementing tariffs or similar efforts. Deportation efforts could also impact agriculture, particularly fruit and vegetable operations, dairy operations, and significant parts of the meat and poultry industries. This would, in turn, impact food prices and inflation. Other areas of question are the incoming administration’s plans for biofuels, including sustainable aviation fuel; they also include questions about how exactly any reversal of climate change policies would be implemented and what would be the impacts.
Any final thoughts?
I think the future of the Farm Bill and agriculture issues are very uncertain and difficult to predict in large part because president-elect Trump’s campaign did not emphasize policy proposals and little details were forthcoming – especially once the Project 2025 effort was denounced. Whether that effort resurfaces or not, remains to be seen. In his previous term, he did initiate trade conflicts with China that resulted in retaliation which temporarily impacted crop prices – soybeans especially. While we have some precedent to base our expectations off, much of my response regarding the Farm Bill and agriculture policies is uncertain at this time.
