Brian J. Gaines is the Honorable W. Russell Arrington Professor in State Politics for the University of Illinois system, and a professor in the Department of Political Science at the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign. Most of his research deals with elections, electoral rules, and public opinion.
What have been the most notable trends in early voting participation in Illinois over recent election cycles, and how do they compare to trends nationwide?
Almost every state has seen increasing use of convenience voting, early and/or remote. Remote voting (submitting absentee or by-mail ballots) need not be early in every state. The deadlines for receipt of mail ballots vary, and many states allow them to come in after “Election Day,” as long as they are not too late. It is quite difficult to get precise numbers for how many ballots were cast in person on the Tuesday after the first Monday in November, how many were cast in person before that, and how many were submitted by mail or dropped off at dropboxes for every county. The state does not collect that data and make it available yet, so one has to navigate county-level data.
I will immediately add that forecasting 2024 behavior from old data is very hard anyway. Illinois was seeing increasing use of early voting before the pandemic. About a decade back, most states had embraced either early voting or remote voting to facilitate voting and, in turn, boost turnout. Nevada, for example, developed mobile voting stations that cover the few population centers in weeks ahead of Election Day, increasing early voting levels dramatically. California and Iowa had made absentee voting easy long ago, but were overtaken as leaders in that mode when Washington and Oregon shifted to using -by-mail voting almost exclusively. (It is possible, but difficult, to vote in person in those states.) A few had not really promoted either, and some states made both forms of convenience voting easy (e.g. Florida). The Illinois General Assembly made it easier to vote early, but then made absentee voting easier as well. When the pandemic hit, virtually every state revised remote-voting rules to make it easier, given the widespread fear of congregating. Many states also actively promoted remote voting
In turn, it is very hard to know if 2020 patterns will hold up in 2024. Was the surge in mail voting that year a one-time adjustment to the bizarre world of lockdowns? Or will people who were nudged or coerced into voting outside the booth have liked the experience and stay with it? We have had another election in the interim, but a great deal about turnout differs in presidential years and non-presidential years, so 2022 data are of only limited use in answering these questions.
Are there specific demographic groups in Illinois more inclined to utilize early voting, and what factors might drive this trend?
I will note my answer above and say that the answer to this question might be changing rapidly. There was a partisan difference over recent cycles. Democrats in most states pushed for remote votes much harder than Republicans. Republicans have tended to criticize the “reform” of increasing the ease and usage of remote voting because it makes security harder. Remote votes and not secret votes, are more easily lost en route to the tabulators, and are not inherently anonymous either. Democrats have tended to promote any innovation that seems likely to increase turnout, prioritizing participation over security or fears about lack of integrity. Republican candidates, however, have largely given up on protesting about the costs of the reform and have increasingly encouraged their supporters to vote remotely too. So I think the partisan gap may shrink.
How has the increase in early voting options affected overall voter turnout and election outcomes in Illinois?
People disagree. Nationally, we have seen higher turnout in recent presidential elections, roughly since 2004. 2020 saw very high turnout notwithstanding the pandemic. Did easier voting options play a role? Almost certainly. How much of a role? It is hard to say. Primary elections, which have also had easier options, have not surged as uniformly, so it is not the case that more convenience guarantees high turnout. Illinois has patterns pretty much like the US, but a bit more muted. A smooth trend throught turnout for presidential and midterm elections over the last 70 years or so shows a levelling off around roughly percentage of the upper 70s for presidential years and upper 50s for midterms, using registered voters as the base. (That is, we expect about 78% of registered voters to turnout in 2024, based on trends.)
What role have recent changes to Illinois’ voting laws, like expanded access to mail-in ballots, played in shaping early voting trends?
Illinois went from a state with mostly in-person, Election Day voting to a mix of growing use of early voting and decreasing in-person, which was still the dominant form, in the early 2000s to a more even mix of all 3 as of 2020. But the counties do not all align.
What are the main challenges election officials in Illinois face in administering early voting, and are there any planned improvements?
Early voting is easier than remote voting because the ballots are in possession of the officials immediately. Even the process of moving ballots from a dropbox to a tabulation site creates some possibility for errors and, in turn, suspicions, rumours and complaints. An innovation in regard to remote ballots has been more usage of tracking software that lets those who do vote remotely check that their ballots have turned up. A big challenge with all non-Election-Day voting is complying with rules on when they can be counted. The Champaign county clerk ran afoul of rules in 2020. Generally, more usage of convenience-voting methods delays tabulation somewhat. Slower tabulation seems almost universally to fuel suspicions about unfair or rigged counting. So I think a cost that was not widely anticipated as states liberalized voting law has been more public dissatisfaction with slow release of official counts and greater belief that someone is cheating in the counting stage.
