The Illinois Flash Index for August continued its recent decline, falling to 102 from its 102.3 level in July. This marks the fourth consecutive month of modest weakening. However, any reading above 100 still reflects growth.
“These declines indicate a slowing economy consistent so far with a soft landing, not a recession,” said Fred Giertz, Professor Emeritus, Institute of Government and Public Affairs, University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign.
Illinois’ unemployment rate rose to 5.2 percent from 5.0 the previous month and 4.4 percent a year ago. The national rate increased a comparable amount rising to 4.3 percent from 4.1 percent a month ago. This gradual increase means that unemployment now is well above the historic post-recession lows although still moderate compared to levels in the last decade with the Illinois rate near the highest in the nation.
Both individual income tax and sales tax receipts were down modestly in inflation-adjusted terms compared to the same month last year while corporate tax receipts were up. However, August is typically the weakest month for corporate tax payments which implies it has a minor impact on the index.
The Flash Index is a weighted average of Illinois growth rates in corporate earnings, consumer spending and personal income as estimated from receipts for corporate income, individual income, and retail sales taxes. These revenues are adjusted for inflation before growth rates are calculated. The growth rate for each component is calculated for the 12-month period using data through August 31, 2024.
“These declines indicate a slowing economy consistent so far with a soft landing, not a recession,” said Fred Giertz, Professor Emeritus, Institute of Government and Public Affairs, University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign.
