The Illinois Flash Index in October fell to 101.6 from its 101.8 level in September. This indicates a gradual slowing of the Illinois economy over the last several months, but not a major decline.
A reading of 100 is the dividing line between growth and contraction.
Both the Illinois individual income tax and sales tax receipts were down 6 percent compared to the same month last year, after adjusting for inflation. Corporate tax receipts were up this month compared to last year, though October is a slow revenue month. There were no new unemployment numbers for the state and nation because of the ongoing government shutdown.
“The national economy remains stable, seemingly immune at least temporarily from the ongoing economic and political turbulence,” said Fred Giertz, Professor Emeritus, Institute of Government and Public Affairs, University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign. “The small interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve was expected and incorporated in most economic decisions. Chairperson Powell’s comments about the uncertainty of future rate cuts suggest that the Fed sees a stable economy.”
The Flash Index is the weighted average of Illinois growth rates in corporate earnings, consumer spending, and personal income as estimated from receipts for corporate income, individual income, and retail sales taxes. These revenues are adjusted for inflation before growth rates are calculated. The growth rate for each component is calculated for the 12 months using data through October 31, 2025.
“The national economy remains stable, seemingly immune at least temporarily from the ongoing economic and political turbulence,” said Fred Giertz, Professor Emeritus, Institute of Government and Public Affairs, University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign. “The small interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve was expected and incorporated in most economic decisions. Chairperson Powell’s comments about the uncertainty of future rate cuts the Fed suggest that the Fed sees a stable economy.”
