The Illinois Flash Index fell in May to 102 from its 102.4 level in April.
“The decline in the May Index does not mark a major change in the health of the state’s economy and cannot be attributed to a dominant cause such as impending tariffs. Any reading about 100 indicates continued growth,” said Fred Giertz, Professor Emeritus, Institute of Government and Public Affairs, University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign.
The decline places the Index near the bottom of the narrow 102-103 range it has occupied most of the last two years. The major Illinois tax revenues were down in May compared to the same month last year after adjusting for inflation. Both the individual income and corporate taxes were much lower, while sales tax receipts were down more modestly.
Both the Illinois and national unemployment rates remained unchanged for the month at 4.8 and 4.2 percent, respectively, still low by historical standards.
The Flash Index is the weighted average of Illinois growth rates in corporate earnings, consumer spending and personal income as estimated from receipts for corporate income, individual income, and retail sales taxes. These revenues are adjusted for inflation before growth rates are calculated. The growth rate for each component is calculated for the 12-month period using data through May 31, 2025.
“The decline in the May Index does not mark a major change in the health of the state’s economy and cannot be attributed to a dominant cause such as impending tariffs. Any reading about 100 indicates continued growth,” said Fred Giertz, Professor Emeritus, Institute of Government and Public Affairs, University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign.
