June Illinois Flash Index rose slightly for the second straight month

The Illinois Flash Index for June 2026 rose to 101.4 from its 101.1 level in May, ending the fiscal year on a strong note.

“The last two months have seen a modest rebound from the Index’s year-long downward trend,” said Fred Giertz, Professor Emeritus at the Institute of Government and Public Affairs, University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign. “Both the national and Illinois economies continue to experience slow growth amid ongoing economic and political uncertainty. Strong recent employment gains and persistent inflation have prompted the Federal Reserve, under its new leadership, to keep interest rates unchanged rather than pursue the rate cuts advocated by President Trump.”

In Illinois, the three major components of the Flash Index (individual income tax, corporate tax, and sales tax receipts) were up in June compared to the same month last year after adjusting for inflation. For the fiscal year ending June 30, combined revenues from the three tax sources were up over the last fiscal year in real terms, led by strong individual income tax receipts.

The Flash Index is the weighted average of Illinois growth rates in corporate earnings, consumer spending, and personal income as estimated from receipts for corporate income, individual income, and retail sales taxes. These revenues are adjusted for inflation before growth rates are calculated. The growth rate for each component is calculated for the 12-month period using data through June 30, 2026.