The July University of Illinois System Flash Index fell to 102.3 from its 102.5 reading in June. The July result marks a third month of modest declines in the Index although growth is still indicated for the Illinois economy. Any reading above 100 reflects growth.
“National economic indicators including a stronger than expected second quarter GDP growth (2.4 percent) along with moderating inflation suggests that the Federal Reserve may have accomplished its goal of a ‘soft land’ with attention now focused on interest rate cuts,” said Fred Giertz, Professor Emeritus, Institute of Government and Public Affairs, University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign.
The unemployment rates for Illinois and the nation crept upward by one-tenth of a percentage point, five percent for Illinois and 4.1 percent nationally. Illinois’ rate is now seven-tenths of a percentage point over the rate a year ago. Continuing last month’s trend, individual income tax receipts were up in inflation-adjusted terms compared to the same month a year ago. At the same time, sales and corporate tax revenues were down from July last year.
The Flash Index is a weighted average of Illinois growth rates in corporate earnings, consumer spending and personal income as estimated from receipts for corporate income, individual income, and retail sales taxes. These revenues are adjusted for inflation before growth rates are calculated. The growth rate for each component is calculated for the 12 months using data through July 31, 2024.
“National economic indicators including a stronger than expected second quarter GDP growth (2.4 percent) along with moderating inflation suggests that the Federal Reserve may have accomplished its goal of a ‘soft land’ with attention now focused on interest rate cuts,” said Fred Giertz, Professor Emeritus, Institute of Government and Public Affairs, University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign.
