July Illinois Flash Index fell slightly after marginal increases over the last two months

The Illinois Flash Index for July 2026 fell to 101.2 from its 101.4 level in June. This small decline reflects the stability of the Index over the last year, which has hovered in the 101-102 range.

The Illinois economy is still growing, although more slowly than in the recovery period after the Covid recession. While the state economy remains above the 100 threshold separating growth from contraction, the latest reading suggests economic momentum continues to weaken. The national economy grew at a slower 1.5 percent pace in the second quarter, down from the first quarter rate of 2.1 percent.

“The stability of both the national and Illinois economies remains astonishing amidst relentless political and economic chaos worldwide,” said Fred Giertz, Professor Emeritus at the Institute of Government and Public Affairs, University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign.

He warns that the recent Federal Reserve decision to keep rates unchanged signals growing uncertainty. “This disappointed inflation hawks craving a slight increase and President Trump, who has pushed for rate cuts. This may be a hopeful sign for Fed independence.”

The Illinois unemployment rate remained unchanged at 5.1 percent while the national rate fell from 4.3 to 4.2 percent.

Illinois tax revenues for July (the basic building block of the Index) were mixed. Sales tax revenue was up by over 12 percent compared to the same month last year after adjusting for inflation, while income tax receipts were down by 1 percent. Corporate receipts were up markedly from last year although July is historically a month of low collections. Sales taxes reflected the national trend of strong consumer spending amid concern about the economy.

The Flash Index is the weighted average of Illinois growth rates in corporate earnings, consumer spending, and personal income as estimated from receipts for corporate income, individual income, and retail sales taxes. These revenues are adjusted for inflation before growth rates are calculated. The growth rate for each component is calculated for the 12-month period using data through July 31, 2026.