The Illinois Flash Index fell slightly again in July to 101.8 from its 101.9 level in June.

An index reading above 100 indicates growth.

“This mirrors the national economy, which remains remarkably stable amid both domestic and international uncertainty,” said Fred Giertz, Professor Emeritus, Institute of Government and Public Affairs, University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign. The fears among economists about the negative consequences of tariffs have yet to materialize. Economic growth in the second quarter, as measured by GDP, was stronger than expected at 3 percent, countering the weak reading for the first quarter.”

In Illinois, the unemployment rate fell to 4.6 percent from the 4.8 percent rate last month and 5.1 percent a year ago. This is the lowest rate since October 2023. Illinois’ rate is now one-half a percentage point above the national average, the smallest differential since August 2023.

The major state tax receipts (a building block of the index) were mixed for the month, with individual income tax and corporate tax receipts down compared with the same month last year after adjusting for inflation, while sales tax receipts were up.

The Flash Index is the weighted average of Illinois growth rates in corporate earnings, consumer spending, and personal income as estimated from receipts for corporate income, individual income, and retail sales taxes. These revenues are adjusted for inflation before calculating growth rates. The growth rate for each component is calculated for the 12 months using data through July 31, 2025.