Illinois Flash Index finished the year holding steady

The Illinois Flash Index for December ended the year at 101.7, the same reading as November. For the year, the index was down from a 102.4 reading in December 2024. This indicates a slowing but still expanding Illinois economy.

“On a surprising note, the Illinois unemployment rate fell to 4.1 percent, equaling the national rate. A year ago, Illinois’ rate was nearly one percentage point above the national rate (5.0 compared to 4.1 percent),” said Fred Giertz, Professor Emeritus, Institute of Government and Public Affairs, University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign. “This is good news for the state since Illinois often compares unfavorably with the nation in measures of economic performance. One reason for this is that these results are based on overall, rather than per capita, growth. Since Illinois’ population is slow-growing, this tends to make most measures appear less robust.”

Overall, 2025 was a year of steady economic growth for both the state and nation. Fears of a recession have subsided, and inflation has moderated, despite the ongoing political and economic uncertainty that has marked the period.

Illinois tax receipts for December showed growth for both the individual income and sales taxes compared to the same month last year after adjusting for inflation, while corporate receipts were down. For the calendar year, income tax receipts were up in real terms while individual income tax revenues were down slightly. Corporate tax revenues were down 9 percent after a strong year in 2024.

The Flash Index is the weighted average of Illinois growth rates in corporate earnings, consumer spending, and personal income as estimated from receipts for corporate income, individual income, and retail sales taxes. These revenues are adjusted for inflation before growth rates are calculated. The growth rate for each component is calculated for the 12-month period using data through December 31, 2025.