The Illinois Flash Index fell again in August to 101.7 from its 101.8 level in July but remained in a tight range for the last four months.

An Index level of one hundred is the dividing line between growth and decline.

“The Illinois economy has been stable over the last 12 months, with the August Index a year ago at 102, said Fred Giertz, Professor Emeritus, Institute of Government and Public Affairs, University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign. “As noted in the past, this may be the soft landing hoped for a year ago when there was fear of a looming recession.”

GDP growth in the national economy for the second quarter was revised upward to a robust 3.3 percent. In Illinois, the unemployment rate held steady at 4.6 percent, while the national rate rose to 4.2 percent. This narrowed the gap between the state and national unemployment rates to just 0.4 percentage points, the smallest difference in the past two years.

After adjusting for inflation, Illinois’ individual income tax receipts were up by one percent compared to the same month last year, while sales tax revenues were down by about the same percentage. Corporate receipts were much lower, but this is of little consequence since August is typically the slowest month for this sector.

The Flash Index is the weighted average of Illinois growth rates in corporate earnings, consumer spending, and personal income as estimated from receipts for corporate income, individual income, and retail sales taxes. These revenues are adjusted for inflation before growth rates are calculated. The growth rate for each component is calculated for the 12 months using data through August 31, 2025.