March Illinois Flash Index declined for the third month in a row

The Illinois Flash Index for March 2026 fell again to 101.2 from its 101.3 level in February. This is a continuation of the trend that began a year ago of a gradually slowing economy.

“The Illinois economy is still growing at a moderate rate in line with predictions for the national economy of relatively slow growth in 2026,” said Fred Giertz, Professor Emeritus, Institute of Government and Public Affairs, University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign. “The conflict with Iran began on the last day of February, and it had little economic impact in Illinois in March. If the fighting continues, the effects will gradually be felt.”

Illinois’ tax receipts for March were mixed. Individual income tax receipts continued to be strong, up over six percent compared to the same month last year after adjusting for inflation. This is likely the result of strong capital gains in 2025 being captured during the current filing season. Sales tax revenues compared to March 2025 were down marginally, while corporate tax receipts were down about 5 percent. A lingering effect of the 2025 federal government shutdown resulted in no new state unemployment rates, although the national rate was reported, registering a small increase.

The Flash Index is the weighted average of Illinois growth rates in corporate earnings, consumer spending, and personal income as estimated from receipts for corporate income, individual income, and retail sales taxes. These revenues are adjusted for inflation before growth rates are calculated. The growth rate for each component is calculated for the 12-month period using data through March 31, 2026.