U of I Flash Index drops slightly in October after unexpected spike

November 1, 2019

U of I Flash Index drops slightly in October after unexpected spike

The state’s economy continues to experience moderate growth, while the national economy slows


The University of Illinois Flash Index retreated slightly from last month’s strong and unexpected gain, falling to 105.3 in October from its 105.5 level in September. 

Illinois’ economy remains on a moderate growth path, while the national and world economies are slowing.  An index reading above 100 denotes growth. See the full Flash Index archive

Two of the three components of the Flash Index, sales tax and corporate tax receipts, were up more than 10 percent from the same month last year after adjusting for inflation and rate changes. Income tax receipts were down slightly.

National GDP for the third quarter registered a 1.9 percent annual growth rate after a 2.0 percent increase for the second quarter.  This is well below the oft-stated goal of 3.0 percent, but still in strong positive territory.  The unemployment rate in Illinois fell again to 3.9 percent, below last month’s 4.0 percent rate. This is the lowest in nearly five decades and the first below 4.0 percent during this period.

The Flash Index is a weighted average of Illinois growth rates in corporate earnings, consumer spending and personal income as estimated from receipts for corporate income, personal income and retail sales taxes.  These are adjusted for inflation before growth rates are calculated. The growth rate for each component is then calculated for the 12-month period using data through October 31, 2019.

Research Area: Fiscal Health of Illinois

Policy Initiative: none