U of I Flash Index up in November

December 2, 2019

U of I Flash Index up in November

Illinois’ economy is holding its own when compared to the national and world economies.

Authors

The University of Illinois Flash Index increased to 105.4 in November from its 105.3 level in October.  

“Corporate receipts were very strong for November, similar to two months ago when the index made an unexpected jump,” said University of Illinois economist J. Fred Giertz, who compiles the monthly index for the Institute of Government and Public Affairs. “Illinois’ economy is holding its own in comparison to the national and world economies.” See the full Flash Index Archive. 

National GDP growth for the third quarter was revised upward to a 2.1 percent annual rate after a 2.0 percent increase for the second quarter.  While slower than recent years, this is well above much of the rest of the world where economies are slowing, Giertz said.

All three components of the Flash Index were up from the same month last year after adjusting for inflation. Corporate tax receipts were up markedly, individual incomes tax receipts modestly, and sales tax receipts barely positive. 

The unemployment rate in Illinois remained at 3.9 percent, the lowest since the 1960s and only three-tenth of a percentage point above the national rate.

The Flash Index is a weighted average of Illinois growth rates in corporate earnings, consumer spending and personal income as estimated from receipts for corporate income, personal income and retail sales taxes. These are adjusted for inflation before growth rates are calculated. The growth rate for each component is then calculated for the 12-month period using data through November 30, 2019. An index reading above 100 denotes growth. 
 

 


Research Area: Fiscal Health of Illinois

Policy Initiative: none

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