January Illinois Flash Index fell slightly after holding steady for two months

The Illinois Flash Index for January dropped to 101.5 from its 101.7 level in December. This indicates a slowing, but still growing, Illinois economy since an index reading of 100 is the dividing line between growth and decline.

“In what has become the norm, economic indicators provide mixed signals. National third-quarter GDP growth was the strongest since 2023 at 4.4 percent, with some observers predicting continued robust growth in 2026,” said Fred Giertz, Professor Emeritus, Institute of Government and Public Affairs, University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign. “However, there are increasing signs that employment growth is slowing both in Illinois and nationally.”

After only one month in which the Illinois unemployment rate was lower than the national average, the Illinois rate increased to 4.6 percent while the national rate fell to 4.4 percent. Employment in Illinois has also fallen slightly in the last six months.

Illinois individual, corporate, and sales tax receipts for January (a building block of the index) were nearly unchanged from the same month last year after adjusting for inflation.

The Flash Index is the weighted average of Illinois growth rates in corporate earnings, consumer spending, and personal income as estimated from receipts for corporate income, individual income, and retail sales taxes. These revenues are adjusted for inflation before growth rates are calculated. The growth rate for each component is calculated for the 12-month period using data through January 31, 2026.