February Illinois Flash Index declined for the second month in a row

The Illinois Flash Index for February 2026 continued its modest downward trend, falling to 101.3 from its 101.5 level in January. However, the Illinois economy is still growing, since 100 is the dividing line between expansion and decline.

“This is the lowest level since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic recovery in Spring 2020,” said Fred Giertz, Professor Emeritus, Institute of Government and Public Affairs, University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign.

The national GDP fourth-quarter growth rate was 1.4 percent, down significantly from the strong third-quarter result of 4.4 percent. As noted last month, the Illinois unemployment rate is now above the national rate after a brief period when it was lower for the first time in many years.

Illinois corporate tax receipts for February were down sharply from the same month last year after adjusting for inflation. It should be noted that the month of February is normally a weak month for corporate taxes. Individual income tax revenues (after inflation adjustments) were up modestly, while sales tax receipts were down slightly.

The Flash Index is the weighted average of Illinois growth rates in corporate earnings, consumer spending, and personal income as estimated from receipts for corporate income, individual income, and retail sales taxes. These revenues are adjusted for inflation before growth rates are calculated. The growth rate for each component is calculated for the 12-month period using data through February 28, 2026.