The University of Illinois Flash Index, the first barometer of the Illinois economy each month, broke a six-month slide with a slight increase in January.

The index rose to 103.8 from the December reading of 103.6. It’s the first time since June 2007 that the Flash Index has risen over the previous month.

“In most months, this would be a relatively insignificant result,” said U of I economist J. Fred Giertz, who compiles the index for the university’s Institute of Government and Public Affairs (www.igpa.uillinois.edu). “However, with the threat of a looming recession, this is a case of ‘no news is good news.’ As of now, the Illinois economy does not appear to be in recession.”

The Flash Index is constructed with the reading of 100 as the dividing line between economic expansion and contraction. The Illinois economy has slowed significantly since June’s reading of 106.8, but it is still expanding, Giertz said.

Individual income tax and corporate tax receipts were up in real terms from the same month last year, while sales tax receipts were down.

“There is one additional factor that may temper the results,” Giertz said. “Individual income tax receipts were likely inflated by estimated payments from people who experienced capital gains in 2007.”

January is one of four months when estimated payments are due. This means that part of the increase in January income tax receipts can be attributed to last year’s economy and not the current situation, he said.

            The Flash Index is a weighted average of Illinois growth rates in corporate earnings, consumer spending and personal income. Tax receipts from corporate income, personal income and retail sales are adjusted for inflation before growth rates are calculated. The growth rate for each component is then calculated for the 12-month period using data through January 31, 2008.