Latest IGPA Electoral Index continues to show Obama with lead

The latest analysis of public opinion data in each of the 50 states and the District of Columbia shows presidential candidate Barack Obama holding a sizable lead in electoral votes over Senator John McCain.

During the 16-day period between an Oct. 13 analysis and Oct. 29, Obama's electoral vote total rose from 353 to 367. During this same period, McCain lost 1 electoral vote as he dropped from 169 to 168. (270 electoral votes are needed to be elected president.)

The analysis uses public-opinion poll data that is applied to formulas designed to approximate the electoral vote totals.

"As we approach the final days of the campaign, we are seeing a tightening of the race and some shifts taking in place in smaller states - such as North Dakota and West Virginia, " said IGPA Senior Fellow Michael R. Cheney, who conducted the research with undergraduate student Crystal Olsen.

In a second analysis, which included margin of error and poll reliability, Obama's electoral vote count is projected at 243, a drop of 9 electoral votes with Pennsylvania and Colorado moving into the toss-up category and Iowa, Maine and Minnesota moving into the Obama category.

The same analysis has McCain dropping to 127, from the earlier total of 140, with both his home state of Arizona and North Dakota moving into the toss-up category. (There are 168 electoral votes in the toss up category.)

"The second analysis shows that as the race is nearing the end, some of the states earlier believed to be solidly for Obama and McCain are now coming into question. Issues of turnout and decisions made by undecided voters on the final weekend of the campaign can sway the outcome," said Cheney, who is also co-director of IGPA's Center for Technology and Public Policy.