The University of Illinois System Flash Index for April continued its upward trend moving to 103 from its 102.8 reading in March.
“The strength of the U. S. and Illinois economies has surprised many observers. Over a year ago, a minor recession was expected but the hope was for a soft landing instead,” said Fred Giertz, Professor Emeritus, Institute of Government and Public Affairs, University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign. “More recently, the desired soft landing seems to have been achieved. Now a third possibility is in play, that of no slowdown at all. The strength of the economy and recent inflation numbers has persuaded the Federal Reserve to defer expected rate cuts.”
Illinois state tax receipts, an important building block of the Flash Index, were strong. Individual income tax receipts were up in inflation-adjusted terms by over 16%, the second-highest monthly total on record. Corporate tax receipts were below April of last year’s record high but remained strong while real sales tax receipts were steady. The national and state unemployment rates ticked up but remained at low levels. Illinois’ rate was nine-tenths of a percentage point above the national rate.
The Flash Index is a weighted average of Illinois growth rates in corporate earnings, consumer spending and personal income as estimated from receipts for corporate income, individual income, and retail sales taxes. These revenues are adjusted for inflation before growth rates are calculated. The growth rate for each component is calculated for the twelve months using data through April 30, 2024.
“The strength of the U. S. and Illinois economies has surprised many observers. Over a year ago, a minor recession was expected but the hope was for a soft landing instead,” said Fred Giertz, Professor Emeritus, Institute of Government and Public Affairs, University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign. “More recently, the desired soft landing seems to have been achieved. Now a third possibility is in play, that of no slowdown at all. The strength of the economy and recent inflation numbers has persuaded the Federal Reserve to defer expected rate cuts.”