The Illinois Flash Index for September was 101.8, virtually unchanged from the 101.7 level in August. This continues the surprising stability of the index over the last 12 months amid major economic and political turbulence.
“On the positive side, the national GDP growth for the second quarter was revised upward to a strong 3.8 percent, with equity markets near their all-time highs,” said Fred Giertz, Professor Emeritus, Institute of Government and Public Affairs, University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign.
In Illinois, the unemployment rate has fallen to 4.4 percent compared to the national rate of 4.3 percent, the smallest differential in recent years. This compares to a 5.0 percent Illinois rate and a 4.2 percent national rate one year ago.
“There is continued concern about a slowing national labor market and the impact of tariffs when they are applied on an ongoing basis,” Said Giertz. “In Illinois, Gov. Pritzker has issued an early warning about a possible slowing of revenue growth in the state.”
Illinois state tax revenue growth in September was mixed, with individual income tax receipts up strongly from the same month last year after adjusting for inflation, while corporate tax receipts continued their recent pattern of underperformance. Sales tax receipts were down slightly from September 2024.
The Flash Index is the weighted average of Illinois growth rates in corporate earnings, consumer spending, and personal income as estimated from receipts for corporate income, individual income, and retail sales taxes. These revenues are adjusted for inflation before growth rates are calculated. The growth rate for each component is calculated for the 12-month period using data through September 30, 2025.
“On the positive side, the national GDP growth for the second quarter was revised upward to a strong 3.8 percent, with equity markets near their all-time highs,” said Fred Giertz, Professor Emeritus, Institute of Government and Public Affairs, University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign. “There is continued concern about a slowing national labor market and the impact of tariffs when they are applied on an ongoing basis,” Said Giertz. “In Illinois, Gov. Pritzker has issued an early warning about a possible slowing of revenue growth in the state.”
