May Illinois Flash Index increased slightly after declining for four straight months
The Illinois Flash Index for May 2026 increased slightly after declining for four straight months to 101.1 from its 101 level in April. This relative stability emerged with state revenues and the Illinois unemployment holding steady.
“However, there are several seemingly contradictory national indicators,” said Fred Giertz, Professor Emeritus, Institute of Government and Public Affairs, University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign. “Equity markets remained strong, and consumer spending is high, although consumer sentiment is low.”
The first quarter GDP growth estimate was lowered to 1.6 percent from its earlier report of 2.0 percent. Inflation has returned, a result of the higher oil prices from the Iran conflict, possibly delaying an interest rate decline expected with the new Federal Reserve head.
In Illinois, sales and corporate tax receipts were up in real terms from the same month last year, while income tax receipts were down. As noted above, the Illinois unemployment rate remained unchanged at 5.1 percent, as did the national rate of 4.3 percent.
The Flash Index is the weighted average of Illinois growth rates in corporate earnings, consumer spending, and personal income as estimated from receipts for corporate income, individual income, and retail sales taxes. These revenues are adjusted for inflation before growth rates are calculated. The growth rate for each component is calculated for the 12-month period using data through May 31, 2026.
