After a steady increase for over a year, a key indicator of the Illinois economy has stalled in the three summer months. The University of Illinois Flash Index stayed at 97.8 in August, unchanged from June and July, reports economist J. Fred Giertz, who compiles the index for the IGPA. 

The Flash remains below the 100 level, which marks the division between decline and growth in the state’s economy. A further decrease would have indicated an acceleration of decline in the state economy.

“Given the widespread concern about the economy the last several weeks, the August results can be viewed as relatively good news,” Giertz said. “Discussion has focused on a double-dip recession. Recent economic results have lessened this concern. It is clear that the economy is growing very slowly.”

The Flash Index remained steady for the third consecutive month for the fourth time in its history, which dates to 1981. The other instances were July, August and September of 2002, June, July and August of 2003, and April through June of 2004.

After adjustment for the individual and corporate income tax rate increases earlier this year, corporate and sales tax receipts were up in real terms in August compared to the same month last year while individual income tax receipts were down.

The Flash Index is a weighted average of Illinois growth rates in corporate earnings, consumer spending and personal income. Tax receipts from corporate income, personal income and retail sales are adjusted for inflation before growth rates are calculated. The growth rate for each component is then calculated for the 12-month period using data through August 31, 2011.

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