A key measure of the Illinois economy continues to confirm the slow pace of recovery in the state. The University of Illinois Flash Index rose in June to 91.3, a climb of seven tenths of a point from May but still well below the post-recession high set in March of this year.

The Flash Index, which is the first measure of the pace of the Illinois economy each month, had fallen for two consecutive months after climbing out of its recession low of 90.0 last September to a level of 91.8 in March. The index remains well below the level of 100, which marks the dividing line between economic contraction and growth.

“The index confirms the sluggish pace of recovery,” said economist J. Fred Giertz of the U of I Institute of Government and Public Affairs. “The Illinois unemployment rate for May showed some improvement, but remained 1.1 percentage points higher than the national rate.

“While there appears to be little chance of a double-dip recession, the speed of recovery remains painfully slow in Illinois and the nation,” said Giertz, who has compiled the Flash Index for IGPA since 1995.

The Illinois unemployment rate for May stood at 10.8 percent, down from 11.2 percent in April. The national jobless rate for May was 9.7 percent.
In real terms, corporate tax collections were up considerably from the same month last year, reversing the trend of the past two months. Individual income tax and sales tax receipts were down slightly in real terms.

The Flash Index is a weighted average of Illinois growth rates in corporate earnings, consumer spending and personal income. Tax receipts from corporate income, personal income and retail sales are adjusted for inflation before growth rates are calculated. The growth rate for each component is then calculated for the 12-month period using data through June 30, 2010.