The Illinois economy is recovering from the depths of recession but the pace of that recovery is “painfully slow,” according to a University of Illinois economist who compiles the monthly Flash Index.
The Flash Index rose in July to 91.6, up three-tenths of a point from its level in June, said economist J. Fred Giertz. The Index has measured the Illinois economy each month since 1995.
“Increases the last two months have largely reversed the two-month decline in April and May of this year,” said Giertz, who compiles the Flash Index for the university’s Institute of Government and Public Affairs. “However, the index is still well below the 100 level, suggesting the Illinois economy is still very sluggish.”
A Flash Index level below 100 indicates the economy is in contraction, while readings above 100 indicate economic growth. The Flash Index reached its low point of the 2008 recession in September 2009, when it fell to 90.0.
“The Flash Index confirms that the recovery from the recession is painfully slow, but that a so-called double dip is unlikely,” Giertz said. “The Illinois unemployment rate is falling, but it is still well above the national rate.”
Recently released data indicates that the national economy’s growth rate of 2.4 percent for the second quarter was down from the 3.7 percent growth rate in the first quarter.
“It is now becoming clear the recent recession is likely to be the longest and possibly the deepest in the post-World War II era,” Giertz said.
The Flash Index is a weighted average of growth rates in Illinois corporate earnings, consumer spending and personal income, as measured by tax receipts. In real terms, corporate tax collections were up slightly in July from the same month last year. Individual income tax and sales tax receipts were down slightly.
Tax receipts are adjusted for inflation before growth rates are calculated. The growth rate for each component is then calculated for the 12-month period using data through July 31, 2010.


