Economic numbers may be improving across the nation, but a leading indicator of Illinois’ economy shows the state is still tightly in the grip of recession.

After showing improvement for three consecutive months, the University of Illinois Flash Index remained at 91.2 in January, unchanged from the previous month. The reading is still well below the 100 dividing line between growth and contraction, indicating continued slow recovery in the state’s economy.

“The January Flash Index reflects the observation by President Obama’s economic advisor Larry Summers that the economy is in a ‘statistical recovery and a human recession,’” said U of I economist J. Fred Giertz, who compiles the monthly Flash Index for the Institute of Government and Public Affairs. “The overall measure of economic performance -- gross domestic product – grew at a strong 5.7 percent rate in the last quarter of 2009, while unemployment remains at about 10 percent in the nation and 11 percent in Illinois.”

The Flash Index had improved for three months in a row after dropping to a 16-year low of 90.0 in September. The slight improvement in October ended a skid of 27 consecutive months of decline.

The continued high unemployment rate affects two important components of the Flash Index: individual income tax and sales tax collections. In real terms, these components were down from the same month last year while the third component, corporate income tax receipts, was up.

The Flash Index is a weighted average of growth rates in Illinois corporate earnings, consumer spending and personal income. Tax receipts from corporate income, personal income and retail sales are adjusted for inflation before growth rates are calculated. The growth rate for each component is then calculated for the 12-month period using data through January 31, 2010.