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U of I Flash Index resumes upward trend in February

After a one-month stall, the Illinois economy appears to have resumed an upward trend. The University of Illinois Flash Index, the first barometer of the state’s economic condition each month, rose to 91.5 in February.

The index, which is published on the first business day each month by the University of Illinois’ Institute of Government and Public Affairs, had stalled in January at 91.2, the same reading as December, after climbing slightly for three consecutive months. Despite the improvement in February, the 91.5 level is still well below 100, which is the Flash Index dividing line between contraction and growth in the economy.

“The sluggish index reflects the lingering impact of the recent recession,” said economist J. Fred Giertz, who compiles the index for IGPA. “While broad indicators such as gross domestic product are moving ahead, other measures such as unemployment still reflect recession-like readings.

“Many observers expect this trend to continue with unemployment rates falling very slowly over the next year,” Giertz said.

The Flash Index began climbing slightly again in October 2009 after 26 consecutive months of decline, during which it fell from 107.4 in April 2007 to 90.0 in September 2009. That reading was the lowest for the index since 1983.

The Flash Index is a weighted average of Illinois growth rates in corporate earnings, consumer spending, and personal income. Tax receipts from corporate income, personal income, and retail sales are adjusted for inflation before growth rates are calculated. The growth rate for each component is then calculated for the 12-month period using data through February 28, 2010.

In real terms, the individual income tax and sales tax components of the index were down in February from the same month in 2009, while corporate tax receipts were up.
 

  

Flash Index Title

The State of the Illinois Economy

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